Description: This article is an introduction to the topic of mortality projections and their impact on social security systems. The article reviews two life expectancy graphs and overall trends in life expectancy by gender at birth and age 65 in the United States, Canada and the UK.

Description: We propose an age-shift model to modify the LC model and deal with the problem of parameters. The proposed method attains smaller estimation errors with respect to mean absolute percentage error or mean square error. We also apply the proposed age-shift model to the mortality rates of these four countries to evaluate the longevity risk in annuity products by measuring life expectancy.

Description: Presented at May 1996 Spring Meeting. This session analyzes the factors that influence the mortality differences between countries and between population and insured-lives mortality.

Description: We propose an age-shift model to modify the LC model and deal with the problem of parameters. The proposed method attains smaller estimation errors with respect to mean absolute percentage error or mean square error. We also apply the proposed age-shift model to the mortality rates of these four countries to evaluate the longevity risk in annuity products by measuring life expectancy.

Description: Recent trends in mortality suggest that future gains in life expectancy will occur after age 80. This fact stresses the need and the importance to obtain precise measures of mortality at the highest ages, which are always subject to uncertainty due to misreporting of age at death.

Description: In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of the Lee-Carter mortality index parameter kt. Specifically, we perform statistical hypothesis tests to examine whether the mortality indexes for Canada, England and Wales and the United States are best described by stochastic trends difference stationary models or deterministic trends trend stationary models. The empirical results favor broken-trend stationary models over difference stationary models, which are used in most previous applications of the Lee-Carter method. The results also give strong statistical evidence that the rates of mortality decline for the three populations have significantly accelerated in mid-1970s.

Description: In this article, the authors review the International Experience Study updates.

Description: In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of the Lee-Carter mortality index parameter kt. Specifically, we perform statistical hypothesis tests to examine whether the mortality indexes for Canada, England and Wales and the United States are best described by stochastic trends difference stationary models or deterministic trends trend stationary models. The empirical results favor broken-trend stationary models over difference stationary models, which are used in most previous applications of the Lee-Carter method. The results also give strong statistical evidence that the rates of mortality decline for the three populations have significantly accelerated in mid-1970s.

Description: Discussion of Living to 100 Session 6A: Projection and Statistical Modeling of Mortality at Late Age

Description: In this paper the authors discuss the official decennial Unites States Life Tables for 1979-81, presenting age-specific mortality rates and expectations of life. Mortality trends are examined going back to the first decennial tables published at the beginning of the century, and brief comparisons with mortality in other industrialized countries are made. The paper includes written discussion. From the 1985 Transactions Vol. 37.